Our primary objectives were (1) to develop and validate an administrative data algorithm for the identification of hand trauma cases using clinical diagnoses documented in medical records as the reference standard and (2) to estimate the incidence of hand trauma in a universal public healthcare system from 1993 to 2023 using a population-based research cohort constructed using a validated case identification algorithm.

A population-based retrospective validation study.

Ontario, Canada, from 2022 to 2023 (validation) and from 1993 to 2023 (estimation).

Our reference standard was the known hand trauma status of 301 patients (N=147 with hand trauma) who presented to an urban tertiary-care hand trauma centre in Toronto, Ontario.

(1) The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the optimal algorithm to identify hand trauma using provincial health administrative data and (2) age-standardised and sex-standardised incidence rates of hand trauma among men and women, by age, and by area of patient residence.

The optimal algorithm had a sensitivity of 73.8% (95% CI 66.6% to 81.0%), specificity of 80.1% (95% CI 73.8% to 86.5%), positive predictive value of 78.1% (95% CI 71.2% to 85.0%) and negative predictive value of 76.1% (95% CI 69.5% to 82.7%). Over the study period, the age-standardised and sex-standardised incidence of hand trauma increased from 384 to 530 per 100 000. The greatest increase was observed in males and individuals aged 0–19 and 80+, with higher incidence rates in Southern compared with Northern Ontario.

Our algorithm enabled identification of hand trauma cases using health administrative data suitable for population-level surveillance and health services research, revealing a rising burden of hand trauma from 1993 to 2023. These findings can support improved surveillance, resource allocation and care delivery for this public health problem.

Polysubstance use (PSU), particularly opioid-involved and stimulant-involved PSU, is a growing issue in the USA. PSU increases the risk of negative health consequences, including infectious diseases, worsening physical and mental health conditions, and overdose-related deaths. These consequences occur in the context of varying health risk behaviours, substance-related preferences, and treatment engagements among people with PSU. To inform improvements in prevention, harm reduction, and substance use disorder (SUD) treatment, additional research is needed to comprehensively understand the current context and drivers of PSU preferences, motivations, and behaviours.

Herein, we describe the protocol for a prospective cohort study designed to capture detailed patterns, profiles, and trajectories of PSU, with the aim of comprehensively examining the drivers of PSU behaviours and SUD treatment utilisation. Adults (ages 18–75; n=400) who engage in PSU will be recruited from healthcare institutions, an established participant database maintained by an adjacent SUD research team, and online advertisements. Study assessments will capture dynamic patterns, choice preferences, and motivators of PSU via behavioural economic (BE) measures, detailed Timeline Follow-Back (TLFB) interviews, and self-administered surveys. The assessment timeline will include a baseline survey and TLFB interview, weekly TLFB interviews for 4 weeks post-baseline, and follow-up surveys and TLFB interviews at 4-, 8-, and 12-months post-baseline.

The study is funded through the National Institutes of Health Helping to End Addiction Long-term (HEAL) initiative and was approved by the University of Michigan Medical Institutional Review Board. Findings will be disseminated to academic, clinical, and community partners through the Michigan Innovations in Addiction Care through Research and Education programme. Results from this study will inform actionable and practical insights relevant to the delivery of personalised care in the context of PSU.

This study examined factors associated with the use of Indonesia’s National Health Insurance (NHI) among its beneficiaries in Maluku province.

Cross-sectional study.

The individual-level data were derived from the 2021 Social Health Insurance Sample Data. National health reports of Indonesia were used to provide the district-level variables. We performed multivariable logistic regression analyses to identify factors associated with NHI use among its beneficiaries in Maluku province.

Data were collected from 31 517 NHI beneficiaries registered in Maluku.

The primary outcome was the use of NHI insurance when accessing healthcare services (yes/no).

Only 14.79% of NHI beneficiaries in Maluku had ever used their insurance for healthcare services. Individual factors associated with higher NHI use included being under 60 years, females (adjusted OR (aOR)=1.29, p

Strengthening primary healthcare accessibility, improving the distribution of healthcare workers and addressing socioeconomic and geographical disparities are essential to ensure that the NHI scheme achieves equitable use across all regions in Maluku and other areas with similar settings.

Being exposed to adverse psychosocial working conditions contributes to poor mental health in young workers. This study explores whether psychosocial work adversities are a necessary condition for work-related emotional exhaustion in young workers.

Data from the ‘Netherlands Working Condition Survey 2021’ was used. By applying a novel method called Necessary Condition Analysis, we tested two psychosocial work adversities as necessary conditions for high work-related emotional exhaustion in young workers: (1) a composite score of high job demands and low job resources and (2) a composite score of high job demands. Additionally, we tested whether the threshold for job demands as a necessary condition for high work-related emotional exhaustion differed for young workers with low versus high resources.

Secondary data analysis on a national working population-based survey.

The sample included 5791 young workers in the Netherlands (aged

Work-related emotional exhaustion.

A high level of the composite on job demands and job resources is necessary for a high level of work-related emotional exhaustion in young workers (effect size=0.11, p

Both psychosocial work adversities were necessary conditions for high work-related emotional exhaustion in young workers. The necessity threshold for job demands was higher for young workers with high job resources, compared with the group with low resources. This indicates that removing psychosocial work adversities and ensuring the presence of job resources might contribute to the prevention of high work-related emotional exhaustion in young workers.

To evaluate adherence to National Health Service (NHS) patient registration ID guidelines among General Practitioners’ (GP) practices.

A mystery shopper study, including website reviews and phone calls.

Rural and urban parts of the United Kingdom’s West Midlands.

85 randomly selected GP practices.

In January–April 2024, GP’s websites were reviewed before phone calls in which our ‘mystery shopper’ was asked to register without photo ID and proof of address.

Of 85 GP practices, 60 (71%) breached NHS guidance either online or over the phone, with only 25 (29%) consistently following NHS guidance. Phone calls to rural (vs urban) GP practices were more likely to yield refusal of registration without photo ID and proof of address, despite rural (vs urban) GP practices making similar statements online. During some phone calls, practices sought to negotiate a compromise by requesting less robust ‘documentation’, such as an addressed parcel.

GP practices commonly refuse registration to people without photo ID or proof of address, thus creating ‘sludge’ and undermining access to healthcare especially for poor, vulnerable patients, including immigrants. Changing GP practices’ websites would not address this problem if erroneous information is still provided over the phone. GPs and practice managers should ensure that all staff follow NHS guidance to allow registration without these documents.

Stress is a major health issue in contemporary society, and mindfulness-based approaches reduce stress and anxiety but face practical barriers to consistent practice; this protocol evaluates a Virtual Reality (VR)-based observation meditation programme with an artificial intelligence (AI) coach (‘Otti’) that delivers real-time empathic, tailored prompts to support present-focused attention and emotion regulation in university students in the United States. A single-centre randomised controlled trial in Pennsylvania will assess immediate psychophysiological effects and user acceptability after a single 15 min session following a standardised Stroop stressor in a university laboratory setting.

An a priori power analysis (f=0.25, α=0.05, power=0.80) supports recruitment of 34 students (n=17 per group) in a single-centre randomised controlled design comparing AI-coached VR observation meditation to a no-treatment leisure control within a 30 min visit. Participants complete pre-intervention surveys Perceived Stress Scale-10 (PSS-10), Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS-21), State–Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI-State, STAI-Trait) and baseline heart rate/Heart Rate Variability (HRV) via smartwatch, undergo the 15 min intervention or control, then complete postintervention surveys and repeated heart rate/HRV recording; effects will be tested using repeated-measures analysis of variance, with heart-rate data exported and preprocessed per the prespecified plan. Primary outcomes include perceived stress (PSS-10), emotional state (DASS-21, STAI-State, STAI-Trait), physiological stress response (heart rate/HRV) and participant satisfaction via a structured postintervention survey (usability, perceived effectiveness, comfort).

The study received IRB approval from The Pennsylvania State University Institutional Review Board (PSU CATS IRB: STUDY00025978; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT06704282), and all participants will provide written informed consent prior to procedures. Findings will be disseminated via open access publication, conference presentations and stakeholder-focused briefs, with an anonymised primary-outcome dataset available on reasonable request in line with BMJ Open policies and Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials (SPIRIT)/International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) guidance.

NCT06704282.

Patients with acute psychiatric symptoms are often referred to the emergency department (ED) for medical evaluation to exclude medical causes before psychiatric admission. The absence of a prospectively validated medical screening tool leads to wide practice variation. This study aims to develop a new, evidence-based and consensus-based medical screening tool through a collaborative, interdisciplinary, international Delphi approach.

This modified Delphi study will include representatives from emergency medicine and psychiatry societies across four continents, as well as patient representatives with prior experience of medical screening in the ED. A minimum sample size of 24 participants is planned to account for potential dropouts. The Delphi procedure consists of four rounds. Round 1 will present current evidence and identify key items for the new medical screening tool. Round 2 will evaluate and refine statements from Round 1. Round 3 will seek consensus on the variables to be included in a medical screening tool. In Round 4, hypothetical clinical vignettes will be used to assess the agreement on the recommendations of the newly developed medical screening tool in order to test for content and construct validity. Surveys will be conducted via Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap), with participants rating statements on a 6-point Likert scale. Response stability will be evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient, and consensus defined as ≥80% agreement. Results will be reported according to the ACcurate COnsensus Reporting Document guidelines and the Guidance for Reporting Involvement of Patients and the Public 2 short form.

The Ethics Committee of Northwestern and Central Switzerland exempted the project from committee approval under the Human Research Act on 11 September 2024. Written consent will be obtained from all participants. Results of this study will be summarised as a medical screening tool which will be validated in a prospective, multicentre study in a second step.

NCT06936826.

Infants born to pregnant women living with HIV (WLHIV) are at greater risk for morbidity and mortality and may also have poorer developmental outcomes as compared with infants who are not exposed to HIV. Nutrition interventions in pregnancy may affect developmental outcomes.

This study evaluated the effect of maternal vitamin D supplementation on infant development outcomes.

We conducted a secondary analysis of a randomised, triple-blind, placebo-controlled trial of maternal vitamin D supplementation from June 2015 to October 2019.

Antenatal care clinics in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

Pregnant WLHIV and their offspring.

Daily 3000 IU vitamin D₃ or placebo supplements taken during pregnancy and lactation.

Infants were assessed for cognitive, language and motor development at 1 year of age with the Caregiver Reported Early Development Instruments (CREDI).

A total of 2167 infants were eligible, and 1312 of them completed CREDI assessments at 1 year of age. Vitamin D supplementation had no effect on overall CREDI z-scores (standardised mean difference (SMD) 0.03, 95% CI –0.09, 0.15, p value 0.66). There was also no evidence of a difference between vitamin D and placebo groups in language (SMD 0.06, 95% CI –0.08, 0.21, p value 0.40), motor (SMD 0.02, 95% CI –0.09, 0.14, p value 0.69) or cognitive domain z-scores (SMD 0.05, 95% CI –0.08, 0.17, p 0.48).

Maternal vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy and lactation did not affect infant development outcomes.

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02305927.

Food insecurity is increasing in the UK, impacting choice and diet quality. The current means-tested free school meals (FSM) policy was put in place to address dietary inequalities and food insecurity in school children. In secondary schools, approximately 20% of students who are eligible and registered do not take their FSM. Working across a range of schools that have variable levels of FSM uptake, this study aims to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the current means-tested FSM policy in UK secondary schools on diet and food insecurity outcomes, understand what factors are associated with uptake and test the potential impact of any proposed policy change.

Secondary schools (n=32) in both Northern Ireland and the Midlands region of the UK are being recruited into the study. Data will be collected from school staff, governors, students and parents via questionnaires, as well as observational data of school eating environments. Qualitative data will be collected in selected case study schools (n=6–8). Multilevel modelling will be undertaken to evaluate the association between FSM uptake and fruit and vegetable intake, overall diet quality and food insecurity in all students. Economic evaluation will be conducted using a cost–utility approach. The effect of policy change will be modelled and school factors associated with FSM uptake explored using multiple methods.

Ethical approval has been obtained from Queen’s University Belfast Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences Research Ethical Committee (MHLS 23_55). Findings will be disseminated to key national and local agencies, to schools through reports and presentations, and to the public through media and open access publications.

Children with medical complexity (CMC) are a subset of children with special healthcare needs, defined by high healthcare utilisation, severe single or multisystem organ dysfunction, and in many cases, reliance on medical technology. In the emergency care setting, known challenges for this population include poor quality of care, avoidable admissions and high caregiver and provider burden. While experts and professional societies recommend emergency care planning tools to address these concerns, evidence to support effectiveness and implementation of such tools is lacking. Through a human-centred design approach, we recently engaged key partners to create and optimise an emergency care action plan (ECAP) for infants with medical complexity. Here, we describe the protocol for a pilot type 1 hybrid effectiveness-implementation randomised controlled trial (RCT) for infants with medical complexity aimed to evaluate ECAP effectiveness and implementation.

Infants with medical complexity and their caregivers will be randomly assigned to the intervention group (ECAP) or control group (standard care) in a pilot type 1 hybrid effectiveness-implementation RCT. The primary outcome is number of inpatient hospital days for infant participants. Additional effectiveness outcomes include perceived avoidance of emergency department (ED) visits, healthcare costs, caregiver stress and self-efficacy. Preliminary implementation outcomes include acceptability, feasibility, appropriateness and usability, as well as contextual barriers and facilitators to reach, adoption and implementation. Key partners, including caregivers of CMC and healthcare providers, will be engaged throughout the implementation of the ECAP and execution of the trial.

This study was approved by the University of Vermont Institutional Review Board (STUDY00002937). Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations, and focus groups and interviews with key stakeholders.

NCT06444282.

The management of severe traumatic brain injury (sTBI) in the intensive care unit (ICU) is focused on preventing secondary brain insults, by ensuring adequate cerebral perfusion, oxygenation and substrate delivery. Despite optimisation of intracranial pressure (ICP) and cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) using evidence-based guidelines, brain tissue hypoxia can still occur and is strongly associated with adverse functional outcomes post sTBI.

The Brain Oxygen Neuromonitoring in Australia and New Zealand Assessment – Global Trial (BONANZA-GT) is an international, two-arm, open-label, parallel group, randomised controlled trial comparing sTBI management incorporating early brain tissue oxygen (PbtO₂) monitoring and optimisation, with ICP/CPP-based management alone. A total of 860 adults admitted to participating institutions with non-penetrating sTBI and requiring insertion of an ICP monitor (as determined by the treating neurosurgeon) will be enrolled. The primary outcome is the proportion of patients with favourable neurological outcomes, as defined by a Glasgow Outcome Score-Extended (GOS-E) >4, at 6 months following injury. Key secondary outcomes include all-cause mortality at ICU discharge, hospital discharge, adverse events, as well as hospital and ICU length of stay and GOS-E at 12 months. The BONANZA-GT will determine whether a protocolised therapeutic strategy guided by continuous PbtO₂ monitoring in addition to ICP/CPP targets results in improved neurological outcomes when compared with standard care using ICP/CPP-guided management alone.

Approval has been obtained from relevant ethics boards in every jurisdiction that is participating in the trial. Inclusion of adults who lack capacity for informed consent will be governed in accordance with the legal requirements of each participating site. Study findings will be presented at scientific meetings and disseminated via peer-review publications.

Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN 12619001328167).

There is an absence of real-world evidence, especially from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), on the implementation successes and challenges of COVID-19 Test and Treat (T&T) programmes. In 2022, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir was provided as standard of care for mild to moderate COVID-19 treatment in eight LMICs (Ghana, Kenya, Laos, Malawi, Nigeria, Rwanda, Uganda and Zambia). This manuscript describes a research protocol to study novel drug introduction during the COVID-19 health emergency, with implications and learnings for future pandemic preparedness. The goal of the study is to provide simultaneous programme learnings and improvements with programme rollout, to fill a gap in real-world implementation data on T&T programmes of oral antiviral treatment for COVID-19 and inform programme implementation and scale-up in other LMICs.

This multiple methods implementation research study is divided into three components to address key operational research objectives: (1) programme learnings, monitoring and evaluation; (2) patient-level programme impact; and (3) key stakeholder perspectives. Data collection will occur for a minimum of 6 months in each country up to the end of grant. Quantitative data will be analysed using descriptive statistics for each country and then aggregated across the programme countries. Stakeholder perspectives will be examined using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research implementation science framework and semistructured interviews.

This study was approved by the Duke University Institutional Review Board (Pro00111388). The study was also approved by the local institutional review boards in each country participating in individual-level data collection (objectives 2 and 3): Ghana, Malawi, Rwanda, Nigeria and Zambia. The study’s findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and disseminated through dialogue events, national and international conferences and through social media.

NCT06360783.

Acute pain in the postoperative period of cardiac surgery is mostly treated with opioid analgesics. However, with the risk of adverse reactions and complications, strategies which do not involve opioid analgesics can be considered, such as aromatherapy. This systematic review aims to analyse the effectiveness of aromatherapy in relieving pain in post-cardiac surgery patients.

Two researchers will independently and simultaneously conduct searches and select studies from the following databases: PubMed, Embase, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Latin American and Caribbean Literature on Health Sciences, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane (Library) and clinical trial registries (clinicaltrials.com), with no language or publication date restrictions. Randomised and quasi-randomised clinical trials on the use of aromatherapy for pain relief in postcardiac surgery patients will be included. Then, two researchers will independently examine the studies based on inclusion criteria, extract data from the included studies and assess the risk of bias using the Risk of Bias 2 tool and the Risk of Bias in Non-randomized Studies of Interventions tool from Cochrane. Data will be synthesised using Review Manager software. The strength of the evidence will be evaluated using the Grading of Recommendation Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach. The literature search, study selection, review and meta-analysis stages will be conducted from early October 2025 to April 2026.

This study is based on secondary data, and therefore ethical approval from a research ethics committee was not required. The results will be disseminated through publication in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.

CRD42024568532.

While digital technologies can increase the availability and access to evidence-based interventions, little is known about how users engage with them and the mechanisms associated with effective outcomes. Process evaluations are an important component in understanding the aforementioned factors. The ‘SPARX-UK’ study is a randomised controlled pilot and feasibility trial evaluating personalised human-supported (from an ‘eCoach’) vs a self-directed computerised cognitive behavioural therapy intervention (cCBT), called SPARX (Smart, Positive, Active, Realistic, X-factor thoughts), aimed at adolescents with mild to moderate depression. We are comparing supported vs self-directed delivery of SPARX to establish which format should be used in a proposed definitive trial of SPARX. The control is a waitlist group. We will conduct a process evaluation alongside the trial to determine how the intervention is implemented and provide context for interpreting the feasibility trial outcomes. We will also look at the acceptability of SPARX and how users engage with the intervention. This protocol paper describes the rationale, aims and methodology of the SPARX-UK trial process evaluation.

The process evaluation will use a mixed-methods design following the UK Medical Research Council’s 2015 guidelines, comprising quantitative and qualitative data collection. This will include analysing data usage of participants in the intervention arms; purposively sampled, semi-structured interviews of adolescents, parents/guardians, eCoaches and clinicians/practitioners from the SPARX-UK trial; and analysis of qualitative comments from a survey from those who dropped out early from the trial. Quantitative data will be analysed descriptively. We will use thematic analysis in a framework approach to analyse qualitative data. Quantitative and qualitative data will be mixed and integrated to provide an understanding of how the intervention was implemented and how adolescents interacted with the intervention. This process evaluation will explore the experiences of adolescent participants, parents/guardians, eCoaches and clinicians/practitioners in relation to a complex digital intervention.

Ethical approval was granted by the National Health Service (NHS) Health Research Authority South West - Cornwall & Plymouth Research Ethics Committee (Ethics Ref: 22/SW/0149).

Contextualising how the intervention was implemented, and the variations in uptake and engagement, will help us to understand the trial findings in greater depth. The findings from this process evaluation will also inform the decision about whether and how to proceed with a full randomised controlled trial, as well as the development of more effective interventions which can be personalised more precisely via varying levels of human support. We plan to publish the findings of the process evaluation and the wider project in peer-reviewed journals, as well as disseminate via academic conferences.

ISRCTN: ISRCTN15124804. Registered on 16 January 2023, https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN15124804.

Most research on the relationship between diabetes and cognitive health has used data from high-income countries. This study described this relationship in India, the world’s most populous country.

Cross-sectional analysis of the baseline wave of the nationally representative Longitudinal Ageing Study in India, conducted from 2017 to 2019.

All 36 Indian states and union territories.

57 905 adults aged 45 years or older.

Scaled cognitive scores (mean of 0 and SD of 1) and cognitive impairment defined as a cognitive score 1.5 SD or below the age-matched and education-matched mean. Diabetes was defined as a self-report of a prior diabetes diagnosis made by a health professional or having a measured haemoglobin A1c ≥6.5%.

In age-adjusted and sex-adjusted models, people with diabetes had cognitive scores that were 0.24 SD higher (95% CI 0.22 to 0.26) and had a 1.2% (95% CI 0.6% to 1.7%) lower prevalence of cognitive impairment than people without diabetes. Differences persisted even when adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic and geographical characteristics. Rural versus urban residence modified the relationships of diabetes with cognitive score (p=0.001) and cognitive impairment (p=0.003). In fully adjusted models, rural respondents with diabetes had 0.05 SD (95% CI 0.03 to 0.07) greater cognitive scores and 1.6% (95% CI 0.9% to 2.4%) lower prevalence of cognitive impairment than those without diabetes. In urban areas, respondents with and without diabetes had similar cognitive scores and prevalence of cognitive impairment.

Middle-aged and older adults with diabetes living in India had better cognitive health than those without diabetes. Rural versus urban area of residence modified this relationship. Urban–rural differences, the nutrition transition and social conditions likely influenced the cross-sectional relationship between diabetes and cognitive health in India, leading to different associations than reported in other countries.

Post-COVID-19 conditions (PCC) may include pulmonary sequelae, fatigue and other symptoms, but its mechanisms are not fully elucidated.

This study investigated the correlation between fatigue and the presence of pulmonary abnormalities in PCC patients with respiratory involvement 6–12 months after hospitalisation.

Cross-sectional study.

A tertiary hospital in Brazil.

315 patients, aged ≥18 years, were considered eligible based on SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by reverse transcription-PCR.

Pulmonary function tests (PFT), cardiopulmonary exercise tests (CPET), chest CT and hand grip were performed. The following scales were applied: Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Fatigue (FACIT-F) scale, Euroqol 5 Dimensions quality of life (EQ-5D) and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Participants were divided between the fatigue group (FACIT-F≤30) and the non-fatigue group (FACIT-F>30). For the statistical analysis, the primary outcome was the difference in the diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide (DLCO) between groups. Considered secondary outcomes were differences in PFT, CPET, chest CT, hand grip, EQ-5D and HADS.

The fatigue group had 81 patients (25.7%) against 234 (74.3%). PFT and CPET showed no significant difference in DLCO and oxygen consumption peak values between groups. The fatigue group had a lower workload (mean 55.3±21.3 watts vs 66.5±23.2 watts, p=0.003), higher breathing reserve (median 41.9% (33.8–52.5) vs 37.7% (28.9–47.1), p=0.028) and lower prevalence of ground glass opacity (60.8% vs 77.7%, p=0.003) and reticulation (36.7% vs 54.9%, p=0.005) in chest CT. The fatigue group had higher anxiety (57% vs 24%, p

Fatigue in patients with PCC 6–12 months after hospitalisation is relatively common and had weak correlation with pulmonary disorders. Our results suggested fatigue could be strongly related with peripheral disorders such as reduced musculoskeletal strength or psychosocial limitations.

Urban green and blue space (UGBS) interventions, such as the development of an urban greenway, have the potential to provide public health benefits and multiple co-benefits in the realms of the environment, economy and society. This paper presents the protocol for a 5-year follow-up evaluation of the public health benefits and co-benefits of an urban greenway in Belfast, UK.

The natural experiment evaluation uses a range of systems-oriented and mixed-method approaches. First, using group model building methods, we codeveloped a causal loop diagram with stakeholders to inform the evaluation framework. We will use other systems methods including viable systems modelling and soft systems methodology to understand the context of the system (ie, the intervention) and the stakeholders involved in the development, implementation and maintenance phases. The effectiveness evaluation includes a repeat cross-sectional household survey with a random sample of 1200 local residents (adults aged ≥16 years old) who live within 1 mile of the greenway. The survey is complemented with administrative data from the National Health Service. For the household survey, outcomes include physical activity, mental well-being, quality of life, social capital, perceptions of environment and biodiversity. From the administrative data, outcomes include prescription medications for a range of non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular disease, type II diabetes mellitus, chronic respiratory and mental health conditions. We also investigate changes in infectious disease rates, including COVID-19, and maternal and child health outcomes such as birth weight and gestational diabetes. A range of economic evaluation methods, including a cost-effectiveness analysis and social return on investment (SROI), will be employed. Findings from the household survey and administrative data analysis will be further explored in focus groups with a subsample of those who complete the household survey and the local community to explore possible mechanistic pathways and other impacts beyond those measured. Process evaluation methods include intercept surveys and direct observation of the number and type of greenway visitors using the Systems for Observing Play and Recreation in Communities tool. Finally, we will use methods such as weight of evidence, simulation and group model building, each embedding participatory engagement with stakeholders to help us interpret, triangulate and synthesise the findings.

To our knowledge, this is one of the first natural experiments with a 5-year follow-up evaluation of an UGBS intervention. The findings will help inform future policy and practice on UGBS interventions intended to bring a range of public health benefits and co-benefits. Ethics approval was obtained from the Medicine, Health and Life Sciences Research Ethics Committee prior to the commencement of the study. All participants in the household survey and focus group workshops will provide written informed consent before taking part in the study. Findings will be reported to (1) participants and stakeholders; (2) funding bodies supporting the research; (3) local, regional and national governments to inform policy; (4) presented at local, national and international conferences and (5) disseminated by peer-review publications.