Selecting an optimal initial dosage of opioid agonist treatment (OAT) balances effectiveness and safety, as initial doses that are too low may be insufficient, potentially prompting clients to seek unregulated drugs to alleviate withdrawal symptoms, which may increase the likelihood of treatment discontinuation. Conversely, initial doses that are too high carry a risk of overdose. As opioid tolerance levels have risen in the fentanyl era, linked population-level data capturing initial doses in the real world provide a valuable opportunity to refine existing guidance on optimal OAT dosing at treatment initiation. Our objective is to determine the comparative effectiveness of alternative initial doses of methadone, buprenorphine-naloxone and slow-release oral morphine at OAT initiation, as observed in clinical practice in British Columbia (BC), Canada.

We propose a population-level retrospective observational study with a linkage of nine provincial health administrative databases in BC, Canada (1 January 2010 to 31 December 2022). Our study includes two time-to-event primary outcomes: OAT discontinuation and all-cause mortality during follow-up. We propose ‘initiator’ target trial analyses for each medication using both propensity score weighting and instrumental variable analyses to compare the effect of different initial OAT doses on the hazard of time-to-OAT discontinuation and all-cause mortality. A range of sensitivity analyses will be used to assess the robustness of the results.

The protocol, cohort creation and analysis plan have been classified and approved as a quality improvement initiative by Providence Health Care Research Ethics Board and the Simon Fraser University Office of Research Ethics. Results will be disseminated to local advocacy groups and decision-makers, national and international clinical guideline developers, presented at international conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals electronically and in print.

Methadone and buprenorphine/naloxone are effective medications for people with opioid use disorder; however, interruptions in daily dosing are common and diminish the benefits of these medications. While clinical guidelines in most North American jurisdictions, including British Columbia (BC), recommend dose adjustment after treatment interruptions to varying levels of specificity, the evidence to support these recommendations is limited. We aim to estimate the comparative effectiveness of alternative dose adjustment strategies on subsequent overdose-related acute care visits and discontinuation of opioid agonist treatment in BC, Canada.

Using a linkage of nine health administrative databases, we propose a population-level retrospective cohort study of adults aged 18 years or older in BC who initiated methadone or buprenorphine/naloxone between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2022. We will specify parallel hypothetical trials, known as target trials, for methadone interruptions of 1–3 days, 4 days and 5–14 days, and buprenorphine/naloxone interruptions of 1–5 days and 6–14 days. Following the index interruption, the primary outcomes are the time to overdose-related acute care visits and treatment discontinuation (interruptions lasting >14 days), with time to all-cause acute care visits as a secondary outcome. The intention-to-treat effect will be estimated using both propensity score and instrumental variable approaches. A range of sensitivity analyses will assess the robustness of our results, including cohort and timeline restriction, alternative definitions of exposure and outcome and alternative estimation strategies.

The protocol, cohort creation and analysis plan have been classified and approved as a quality improvement initiative by Providence Health Care Research Institute and the Simon Fraser University Office of Research Ethics. All data are deidentified, securely stored and accessed in accordance with provincial privacy regulations. Results will be disseminated to local advocacy groups and decision-makers, national and international clinical guideline developers, presented at international conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals electronically and in print.