Women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) are at seven-fold to ten-fold increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) when compared with those who experience a normoglycaemic pregnancy, and the cumulative incidence increases with the time of follow-up post birth. This protocol outlines the development and validation of a risk prediction model assessing the 5-year and 10-year risk of T2DM in women with a prior GDM diagnosis.

Data from all birth mothers and registered births in Victoria and South Australia, retrospectively linked to national diabetes data and pathology laboratory data from 2008 to 2021, will be used for model development and validation of GDM to T2DM conversion. Candidate predictors will be selected considering existing literature, clinical significance and statistical association, including age, body mass index, parity, ethnicity, history of recurrent GDM, family history of T2DM and antenatal and postnatal glucose levels. Traditional statistical methods and machine learning algorithms will explore the best-performing and easily applicable prediction models. We will consider bootstrapping or K-fold cross-validation for internal model validation. If computationally difficult due to the expected large sample size, we will consider developing the model using 80% of available data and evaluating using a 20% random subset. We will consider external or temporal validation of the prediction model based on the availability of data. The prediction model’s performance will be assessed by using discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration (calibration slope, calibration intercept, calibration-in-the-large and observed-to-expected ratio), model overall fit (Brier score and Cox-Snell R2) and net benefit (decision curve analysis). To examine algorithm equity, the model’s predictive performance across ethnic groups and parity will be analysed. Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis-Artificial Intelligence (TRIPOD+AI) statements will be followed.

Ethics approvals have been received from Deakin University Human Research Ethics Committee (2021–179); Monash Health Human Research Ethics Committee (RES-22-0000-048A); the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (EO2022/5/1369); the Aboriginal Health Research Ethics Committee of South Australia (SA) (04-23-1056); in addition to a Site-Specific Assessment to cover the involvement of the Preventative Health SA (formerly Wellbeing SA) (2023/SSA00065). Project findings will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals and at scientific conferences and provided to relevant stakeholders to enable the translation of research findings into population health programmes and health policy.

Ageing right care(fully) is a transnational research study which explores and maps an understanding of the care pathways between ageing in place and hospital at home policy and practices for older adults in Israel, the Netherlands and Sweden. The countries are suited to be compared where they have growing, ageing populations, a focus on healthcare reform and several policies to reduce the cost of care for older populations. Ageing in place is a government-led policy that is often associated with choice; however, there is a recent debate about whether ageing in place is a universal desire for all older adults. Research shows that the care pathway between the hospital and the home, associated with ageing in place, can impact well-being, especially if the built, social and technological environments do not meet the healthcare needs and preferences of older adults. This is significant as new programmes for digital hospital at home innovations are being developed as part of a global transformation in healthcare systems. The aim of the study is to compare different approaches to ageing in place and hospital at home care in different regions. The multiapproach study explores the demographics, policy structure, decision-making process and the crucial role of the built, social and technological environments along the hospital to home care pathways of older adults.

The mixed-method, comparative study includes a new multienvironment theoretical contribution explored across a three-phase research method to understand the care pathways of older adults ageing in place receiving hospital at home care. The first phase compares each country’s population and policy structures relating to ageing in place, hospital discharge, home hospitalisation and at-home care for older adults. The second phase maps patient journeys of older adults living in each country through the perspective of the older adult, caregivers and care professionals. The third phase explores the synergies between the knowledge gained through phases 1 and 2—from a policy and a personal level—and mobilises the knowledge into policy recommendations and implementation guidelines.

The comparative study has been approved by the Sheba Medical Centre in Israel (SMC-1330-24), the Ethics Committee of Tel Aviv University (0009216-2), the Humanities and Social Science Ethics Committee at the University of Twente in the Netherlands (240040) and the Swedish Ethical Review Authority (Dnr 2024-07569-01). The results will be shared with end-users, including citizens, carers, healthcare policymakers, planners, architects and designers, through social media, publications, workshops and international conferences. This future-focused research approach will allow stakeholders to rethink and imagine ways that health and care systems can be personalised and responsive to the future needs of older adult populations.