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Development and validation of a risk prediction model for preterm premature rupture of membranes: a cross-sectional study at North Wollo Zone governmental hospitals, Northern Ethiopia

Por: Emagneneh · T. · Mulugeta · C. · Yimer · N. B. · Ejigu · B. · Alamrew · A. · Tsegaye · D. · Nega · A. T. · Yetwale · A.
Objectives

To develop and validate a risk prediction model for preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM) to enable early identification of at-risk women and support clinical decision-making in North Wollo Zone, Ethiopia.

Design

A hospital-based retrospective cross-sectional study.

Setting

Six public hospitals in the North Wollo Zone, Northern Ethiopia.

Participants

A total of 1098 pregnant women were included in the study using systematic random sampling.

Primary outcome measures

Occurrence of PPROM.

Methods

Data were collected between 20 November 2023 and 20 March 2024, using structured interviews and medical record reviews. A risk prediction model was developed using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator and logistic regression. Model performance was assessed through area under the curve (AUC), calibration plots and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Internal validation was conducted via bootstrap resampling. A simplified risk score was created to categorise women into high-risk and low-risk groups, and its clinical utility was evaluated using decision curve analysis.

Results

Among the 1098 participants (100% response rate), the mean age was 21.54 years (IQR: 18–26), with 57.2% aged 20–34 years. The prevalence of PPROM was 10.75% (95% CI 9.01% to 12.77%). Seven significant predictors were identified: maternal age

Conclusions

PPROM remains a significant obstetric complication in the study area. The validated risk prediction model showed moderate to good performance and can be used to support early screening and risk-based management in antenatal care (ANC). Integrating the tool into routine ANC services, along with health education and management of modifiable risk factors, may help reduce PPROM-related adverse outcomes. Further external validation is recommended.

Opportunities, challenges and perceived strategies for the uptake of the OraQuick HIV self-test among female sex workers in Ethiopia: a qualitative study

Por: Ayele · M. · Alamrew · A. · Lake · E. S. · Yilak · G. · Tilahun · B. D. · Tenaw · L. A. · Tunta · A. · Erega · B. B. · Gashaw · A. · Kumie · G.
Objective

To explore the opportunities, challenges and perceived strategies for the uptake of OraQuick HIV self-testing (HIVST) among female sex workers in Ethiopia.

Design

A phenomenological study design, with the Integrated Behavioural Model used as a framework for analysis and interpretation.

Setting

Woldia, North Wollo, Ethiopia, 13–30 February 2024.

Participants

Twenty female sex workers and 18 key informants in Woldia participated in in-depth interviews, key informant interviews and focus group discussions.

Results

The advantages related to OraQuick HIVST include its privacy, ease of use, reduced waiting time, lowered transportation costs, usability for immobile individuals, application in screening for index case testing programmes, providing confidence and reliability and the elimination of the need for healthcare providers during testing. Perceived possible challenges for the uptake of OraQuick HIVST included kit shortage, absence of policies or guidelines for HIVST, lack of post-test counselling and immediate treatment for positive individuals, potential psychological trauma such as suicidal ideation or attempts, lack of linkage to care for those with reactive results, inaccurate reporting of positive results or result concealment and doubts about reliability before education. Strategies perceived for enhancing the uptake of OraQuick HIVST included making the HIVST kit accessible to higher education communities, addressing HIVST-related doubts by including phone or email contact information, advocating and creating awareness about OraQuick HIVST and ensuring the availability of kits in easily accessible locations.

Conclusion

The study findings highlight many positive opportunities related to the uptake of OraQuick HIVST. Policymakers should prioritise addressing the challenges identified and implementing the proposed strategies to enhance the uptake of OraQuick HIVST, potentially leading to improved HIV testing rates and outcomes.

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