This study aimed to explore the predictive value of severe burnout complaints, symptom dimension of burnout and depressive symptoms for subsequent all-cause medically certified sickness absence (ACMCSA) during the pandemic among physicians in Sweden.

A 1 year follow-up panel cohort observational study—the Longitudinal Occupational Health Survey for HealthCare in Sweden. At baseline (February–May 2021), a representative sample of 6699 physicians was drawn from the Swedish occupational register and invited to participate in the study. At follow-up (March–May 2022), the full sample (excluding those who died, retired, stopped working as a physician or migrated, n=94) was invited to answer the survey.

Swedish primary and specialist healthcare.

At baseline, the response rate was 41.3% (n=2761) of which 1575 also answered at follow-up.

ACMCSA data came from the Swedish Social Insurance Agency. The Burnout Assessment Tool (BAT-23) was used to measure burnout, including a burnout total score and scores for the four symptom dimensions of exhaustion, mental distance, emotional impairment and cognitive impairment. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Symptom Checklist-core depression (SCL-CD6). Associations between baseline burnout and depressive symptoms and subsequent ACMCSA were estimated with logistic regression analyses.

ACMCSA was found in 9% of the participating physicians. In the sample, 4.7% had severe burnout complaints, and 3.7% had depressive symptoms. Burnout (OR=2.57; 95% CI=1.27 to 5.23) and the burnout symptom dimensions emotional impairment (OR=1.80; 95% CI=1.03 to 3.15) and cognitive impairment (OR=2.52; 95% CI=1.12 to 5.50) were associated with a higher likelihood of subsequent ACMCSA. Depressive symptoms were not associated with ACMCSA when adjusted for severe burnout complaints and other covariates.

This study demonstrates the distinction between burnout and depressive symptoms, particularly in predicting future ACMCSA. Early intervention targeting exhaustion and burnout may mitigate symptom development and reduce the risk of ACMCSA.