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Development and validation of a postoperative risk calculator (POP-score) for patients undergoing cardiac surgery: a retrospective cohort study

Por: Pölzl · L. · Sutter · C. · Lohmann · R. · Eder · J. · Ioannou-Nikolaidou · M. · Engler · C. · Graber · M. · Naegele · F. · Hirsch · J. · Maier · S. · Ulmer · H. · Mathis · S. · Reinstadler · S. J. · Grimm · M. · Bonaros · N. · Holfeld · J. · Gollmann-Tepeköylü · C.
Objectives

This study aimed to identify intraoperative and perioperative factors influencing 30-day mortality after cardiac surgery and to develop a risk score (POP-score) for its prediction.

Design

Retrospective cohort study with multivariable regression analysis.

Setting

A tertiary care cardiac surgery centre in Austria; data from consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery between 2010 and 2020 were analysed.

Participants

A total of 8072 patients were included. The cohort was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (75%) and a validation cohort (25%).

Outcome measures

The primary outcome measure was 30-day mortality. We analysed associations between intraoperative and perioperative variables and 30-day mortality, assessed via multivariable regression analysis.

Results

Several factors were significantly associated with 30-day mortality, including intraoperative RBC transfusion (OR 3.407 (95% CI 2.124–5.464)), postoperative high-sensitive cardiac troponin T cut-off levels (OR 2.856 (95% CI 1.958 to 4.165)), need for dialysis/haemofiltration (OR 2.958 (95% CI 2.013 to 4.348)) and temporary extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support (OR 5.218 (95% CI 3.329 to 8.179)) (p

Conclusions

The validated POP-score provides an improved tool for predicting 30-day mortality after cardiac surgery by incorporating intraoperative and perioperative factors alongside the EuroSCORE II. Although model performance was evaluated using 7-day peak troponin data, the score can be calculated within the first 72 hours postoperatively in most patients, supporting its clinical applicability for early decision-making, resource allocation and patient counselling. Further research is warranted to assess its clinical utility in diverse populations.

A Prospective Cohort Study of Technique and Technology Used to Improve First Time PIVC Insertion Success in Hospitalised Paediatric Patients

ABSTRACT

Aim(s)

To determine the association between patient characteristics, techniques, and technologies with first-time peripheral intravenous catheter insertion in paediatric acute care.

Design

Single-centre, prospective cohort study.

Methods

Data on patient, provider, and peripheral intravenous catheter insertion characteristics were collected at a large quaternary paediatric hospital in Queensland, Australia. Inpatients aged 0 to ≤ 18 years requiring a peripheral intravenous catheter or who had one inserted in the last 24 h, were eligible. Proportionate stratified random sampling was used. Generalised linear regression with modified Poisson regression assessed associations between patient variables (e.g., age) and first-time insertion success, along with technique (e.g., inserting clinician) and technology (e.g., ultrasound) variables. Models were adjusted for confounding variables identified through direct acyclic graphs.

Results

199 children required 250 peripheral intravenous catheters (July 2022–September 2023). In the adjusted model, each year of age increase and every 5-kg increase in weight were associated with higher first-time insertion success. Children with a history of prematurity had an increased risk of first-time insertion failure. Vascular access specialists were more likely to succeed on the first attempt, as was ultrasound-guidance when adjusted for difficult intravenous access risk.

Conclusion

We identified techniques (expert clinicians) and technologies (ultrasound guidance) that improve first-time insertion success in paediatric patients.

Implications

A multi-faceted approach combining technique (clinician), technology (ultrasound guidance), and standardised policy can improve first-time peripheral intravenous catheter insertion. These strategies minimise patient discomfort, trauma, and emotional distress, enhancing the overall healthcare experience for children and their families.

Impact

This study emphasises the need to standardise healthcare policies and training, incorporating clinician expertise and ultrasound guidance to improve first-time insertion success, particularly for high-risk patients.

Reporting Method

The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE).

Patient or Public Contribution

No Patient or Public Contribution.

Trial Registration

Australia New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12622000034730

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