Globally, about 74% of deaths are attributed to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Tobacco use is one of the key risk factors of NCDs. Tobacco taxes can discourage the use of tobacco. However, how increasing tobacco taxation may reduce the burden of NCDs is not well studied.

This study examines whether higher cigarette taxes are associated with reduced premature deaths—death before the age of 70—from NCDs using multicountry panel data.

The study analysed country-level panel data of 152 countries from 2008 to 2020 collected from various sources. The annual burden of NCDs was measured by the proportion of deaths due to NCDs before age 70 in each country. The tax rate on cigarettes—both specific and total—was used as a key explanatory variable. Other covariates include MPOWER score net of taxes, tobacco prevalence and other country-level characteristics. Panel data regressions with various combinations of country and year fixed effects were used to estimate the association between tobacco taxation and the burden of NCDs.

Cigarette tax was significantly (p

The study provides important evidence that increasing tobacco taxation could be an effective tool in reducing the burden of NCDs. Countries aiming to curb the burden of NCDs could consider raising tobacco taxes.