To develop prediction models for short-term outcomes following a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI) event (index) or for past AMI events (prevalent) in a national primary care cohort.

Retrospective cohort study using logistic regression models to estimate 1-year and 5-year risks of all-cause mortality and composite cardiovascular outcomes.

Primary care practices in England contributing data to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum and CPRD GOLD databases between 2006 and 2019.

Patients with an incident (index) or prevalent AMI event. Models were trained on a random 80% sample of CPRD Aurum (n=1018 practices), internally validated on the remaining 20% (n=255) and externally validated using CPRD GOLD (n=248).

Discrimination assessed using sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration assessed using calibration plots.

In the index (prevalent) cohorts, 94 241 (64 789) patients were included in the training and internal validation sets, and 16 832 (7479) in the external validation set. For the index cohort, AUCs for 1-year [5-year] all-cause mortality were 0.802 (95% CI 0.793 to 0.812) [0.847 (0.841 to 0.853)] internally and 0.800 (0.790 to 0.810) [0.841 (0.835 to 0.847)] externally. For the primary composite outcome (stroke, heart failure and all-cause death), AUCs were 0.763 (0.756 to 0.771) [0.824 (0.818 to 0.830)] internally and 0.748 (0.739 to 0.756) [0.808 (0.801 to 0.815)] externally. Discrimination was higher in the prevalent cohort, particularly for 1-year mortality (AUC: 0.896, 95% CI 0.887 to 0.904). Models excluding treatment variables showed slightly lower but comparable performance. Calibration was acceptable across models.

These models can support clinicians in identifying patients at increased risk of short-term adverse outcomes following AMI, whether newly diagnosed or with a prior history. This can inform monitoring strategies and secondary prevention and guide patient counselling on modifiable risk factors.

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a life-threatening condition with significant morbidity and mortality. The relationship between psychiatric disorders and PE outcomes is complex and not well understood. This study aimed to determine the impact of psychiatric disorders on PE outcomes by comparing patients with and without these conditions.

Using the National Inpatient Sample database, we analysed 725 725 adult patients hospitalised with PE between 2016 and 2019. Patients were stratified based on the presence or absence of psychiatric disorders. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine associations between psychiatric disorders and in-hospital outcomes, adjusting for baseline differences.

Of the patients studied, 26.6% had psychiatric disorders. These patients were younger (59.80 vs 63.91 years, p

Psychiatric disorders are associated with distinct management and outcomes in PE. Recognising these unique characteristics may help optimise care for this population; further research is needed to clarify the best management strategies.