To investigate the association between longitudinal trajectories of metabolic risk clusters and the risk of progression to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and major adverse kidney events (MAKEs) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD).

Prospective registry-based cohort study.

Secondary and tertiary care settings in Taiwan, using data from a multidisciplinary pre-ESKD care programme.

A total of 1494 adult patients with CKD stages 3b–5 enrolled in a structured pre-ESKD care programme.

Time to initiation of dialysis (primary outcome) and time to MAKE, defined as a composite of dialysis initiation or all-cause mortality (secondary outcome). Group-based multitrajectory modelling was used to categorise longitudinal trajectories of metabolic risk clusters, including systolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol.

Four trajectory groups were identified: Group I had controlled blood pressure and glucose but elevated LDL (dialysis incidence: 19.5 per 1000 person-years); Group II had borderline-high blood pressure and elevated glucose (33.6 per 1000 person-years); Group III had controlled glucose and low LDL but borderline-high blood pressure (38.8 per 1000 person-years) and Group IV had controlled glucose but elevated blood pressure and LDL (46.7 per 1000 person-years). Compared with the other groups, Group I exhibited significantly longer dialysis-free and MAKE-free survival (log-rank test, p

Longitudinal trajectories of metabolic risk cluster are associated with differential risks of CKD progression to ESKD and death. Our findings provide valuable insights into the monitoring of metabolic risk profiles over time in patients with CKD.

To assess the incidence and risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with different stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in Taiwan.

Retrospective cohort study.

Secondary and tertiary care; data were collected from three affiliated hospitals in northern Taiwan.

A total of 7038 adult patients with clinically confirmed CKD stages 3–5 were included, of whom 14.09% had progressed to ESKD. Patients were identified from a multicentre database in northern Taiwan. Key exclusion criteria included age under 20 years, prior MACE, cancer or renal transplantation.

The primary outcome was the incidence of MACE during follow-up. Secondary analyses included time to MACE and subgroup comparisons by CKD stage and comorbid conditions (eg, diabetes, cardiovascular disease).

MACE occurred in 49.8% of patients with CKD and 64.1% of those with ESKD. After adjustment for covariates, the ESKD group had a significantly higher risk of MACE (HR=1.52; 95% CI 1.08 to 2.16) compared with the non-ESKD group. Relative to stage 3a, the adjusted HRs for MACE were 1.13 (95% CI 0.74 to 1.73) for stage 3b, 1.13 (95% CI 0.74 to 1.70) for stage 4, 1.82 (95% CI 1.18 to 2.81) for stage 5 (non-ESKD) and 2.32 (95% CI 1.51 to 3.57) for stage 5D (ESKD). Diabetes and cardiovascular comorbidities were associated with increased MACE incidence and shorter time to MACE, but their associations became non-significant after adjustment.

Based on a multicentre cohort from Taiwan, our findings provide insights into the prognosis of patients with CKD across disease stages and highlight the importance of targeted interventions and integrated care to improve cardiovascular outcomes.