Understanding the prognostic factors associated with the failure of total elbow replacement (TER) is crucial for informing patients about risks and enabling shared decision-making regarding TER as a definitive management option. This protocol outlines the planned analysis of National Joint Registry (NJR) data to investigate prognostic factors for TER failure.

The primary analysis will use the NJR elbow dataset, including all eligible patients who underwent TER surgery between April 2012 and December 2023. To incorporate ethnicity and comorbidities as potential prognostic factors, the NJR will be linked to the National Health Service (NHS) England Hospital Episode Statistics-Admitted Patient Care (HES-APC) data for a secondary analysis. The analysis will adhere to the REporting recommendations for tumour MARKer prognostic studies guidelines. The primary outcome under investigation is TER failure, defined as requiring revision surgery. Initially, the overall prognosis of TER will be examined using unadjusted net implant failure via the Kaplan-Meier method. The list of potential prognostic factors to be investigated in this study has been informed by a systematic review on this topic, input from patient and public involvement and engagement (PPIE) groups and a survey shared with healthcare professionals providing TER services. The relationship between each potential prognostic factor and failure will be assessed using univariable regression methods. Based on the findings from our systematic review, the univariable association will also be adjusted for age, sex and indication for TER surgery using multivariable regression methods. The extent of missing data will be reported, and the reasons for missing data will be explored. A very high degree of data completeness is expected, and a complete case analysis will be performed as the primary analysis. Multiple imputations will be considered as a sensitivity analysis.

The NJR research committee approved this analysis, and the NHS Health Research Authority tool guidance dictates that the secondary use of such data for research does not require approval from a research ethics committee. The results from this analysis will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at scientific conferences.

NCT06760585.

To update our previous systematic review to synthesise latest data on the prevalence of long-term pain in patients who underwent total hip replacement (THR) or total knee replacement (TKR). We aim to describe the prevalence estimates and trends in this review.

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Update searches were conducted in MEDLINE and Embase databases from 1 January 2011 to 17 February 2024. Citation tracking was used to identify additional studies.

We included prospective cohort studies reporting long-term pain after THR or TKR at 3, 6, 12 and 24 months postoperative.

Two reviewers independently identified studies as eligible. One reviewer conducted data extraction, checked by a second reviewer. The risk of bias assessment was performed using Hoy’s checklist. Bayesian, random-effects meta-analysis was used to synthesise the results.

For TKR, 68 studies with 89 time points, including 598 498 patients, were included. Multivariate meta-analysis showed a general decrease in pain proportions over time: 21.9% (95% CrI 15.6% to 29.4%) at 3 months, 14.1% (10.9% to 17.9%) at 6 months, 12.6% (9.9% to 15.9%) at 12 months and 14.6% (9.5% to 22.4%) at 24 months. Considerable heterogeneity, unrelated to examined moderators, was indicated by substantial prediction intervals in the univariate models. Substantial loss to follow-up and risk of bias led to low confidence in the results. For THR, only 11 studies were included, so it was not possible to describe the trend. Univariate meta-analysis estimated 13.8% (8.5% to 20.1%) and 13.7% (4.8% to 31.0%) of patients experiencing long-term pain 6 and 12 months after THR, respectively, though concerns in risk of bias results reduced confidence in these findings.

Our review suggests that approximately 22% of patients report pain 3 months post-TKR, with 12%–15% experiencing long-term pain up to 2 years. At least 14% report pain 6–12 months after THR. Given the prevalence of chronic postsurgical pain, implementing existing and developing new preventive and management strategies is crucial for optimal patient outcomes.

CRD42023475498.