To examine the metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components as risk factors for a cardiovascular (CV) event, in individuals without diabetes and/or hypertension, and to explore which of the risk factors are the most predictive for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and whether the assessment of risk could be simplified.

A longitudinal, cross-sectional study.

A randomly selected population.

In 2002–2005, 2816 randomly selected residents of Skaraborg, Sweden, underwent physical examinations and blood tests as part of the Skaraborg Project. Exclusion of individuals with diabetes mellitus and/or hypertension at baseline left 2328 persons for analyses.

CV events were assessed in 2011 using national Swedish registers.

A total of 293 (13%) were defined as having the MetS according to the National Cholesterol Education Programme (NCEP) and 292 according to the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) definition, whereof 27 had a CV event after a mean follow-up time of 9.7 years. The MetS according to NCEP was significantly predictive of a CVD with an HR 2.4 (95% CI 1.4 to 3.9) but not according to the IDF definition. Blood pressure was significantly predictive according to both definitions (HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.97). Also, triglycerides (Tg) were significantly predictive for a CV event (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.17 to 3.59). Neither waist circumference, high-density lipoprotein nor fasting plasma glucose was predictive for a CV event. Combining a blood pressure ≥125/≥80 mm Hg with Tg ≥1.5 mmol/L was predictive for CVD (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.3 to 3.6) with a sensitivity of 32.5% and numbers needed to examine (NNE) 7.1. Lowering the cut-off for Tg to ≥1.2 mmol/L (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.3 to 3.4) increased sensitivity to 44.9% and NNE became 8.

Using blood pressure combined with Tg was shown to be an equally good predictor for CVD as the complete MetS in individuals without diagnosed diabetes or hypertension. Therefore, healthcare personnel should pay attention to individuals with a borderline blood pressure, and if equivalent to or equal to 125/85, continue with measuring Tg for a discussion concerning lifestyle.